What to expect from the September 2022 RBA meeting

Economists from Australia’s big banks are tipping that another cash rate hike may be on the cards for the upcoming September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). But how high will rates rise, and what does this mean for Australian household budgets in the future?

ANZ

ANZ economists are forecasting a 50-point hike to the national cash rate in September 2022, with another similar hike expected for October 2022.

ANZ’s David Plank said that with monetary policy close to neutral, it’s possible the RBA could consider increases of less than 50 points in the future but added that, “regardless of what [RBA Governor] Lowe says, it will be the data that matters. Given our expectations, we think a 50bp rate hike in October is more likely than 25bp”.

Commonwealth Bank

While CBA says that there’s “a case to be made” for the RBA to raise rates more slowly in September 2022, such as only hiking rates by 40 or 25 basis points, they’re still forecasting a 50-point hike.

CBA’s Gareth Aird said that this may be the last 50-point hike in 2022, with one more 25-point hike expected to follow before the RBA will likely pause for a few months to fully assess the economic impact of the past rate hikes. Even with the RBA pausing rate hikes the economy may continue to tighten, as over the next eighteen months more and more fixed rate home loans revert to higher variable rates.

CBA also acknowledged the risk that the cash rate could reach 2.85 per cent before pausing. Taking the cash rate higher than this could result in a “hard landing” for the economy, according to the bank.

NAB

NAB is also forecasting a 50-point rate hike in September from the RBA. The bank said that the cash rate is expected to rise further, culminating at a peak of 2.85 per cent before the end of the year.

NAB’s Alan Oster said that if the RBA continues to normalise rates this is likely to place further fiscal pressure on Australian consumers.

Westpac

With stronger inflation and tighter labour markets, Westpac believes the RBA will need to raise the cash rate higher than the “neutral” rate of around 2.5 per cent to help inflation return to the target band of between 2 and 3 per cent. Westpac is forecasting another 50-point cash rate hike following the RBA meeting, with further rises until the interest rate reaches 3.35 per cent by February 2023.

Looking towards the future, Westpac now sees scope for up to 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, once the threat of inflation has passed.

Westpac also forecasts that the “front-loading” of rate hikes and a higher “terminal” rate could bring forward and accentuate the decline of Australian property prices. This “peak to trough” decline is expected to be at a rate of 16 per cent nationally, but closer to 18 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne.

How could a rate hike affect Australian budgets?

A 50-point hike to the national cash rate could push up interest payments on a $500,000 mortgage by around $144, according to RateCity research.

0.50% HIKE: Increase in repayments 

Calculations are for existing customers and based over 25 years.

Source: RateCity.com.au. 

To stay in the loop of when your bank or mortgage lender announces rate changes following the RBA meeting, you can sign up for RateCity’s Rate Tracker. You can also compare home loan options to get a better idea of whether another lender could offer improved value given your financial situation and personal goals.

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