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Australian property prices predicted to fall well into 2019
Australian sentiment towards property is at a two-year low, and it’s expected to worsen as property prices in most major cities are predicted to keep falling well into 2019 according to NAB economists.
Research from NAB has predicted an average house price fall of 1.8 per cent across capital cities this year, and a further slip of 0.1 per cent in 2019.
For unit prices, a drop of 1.7 per cent is expected in 2018, with a further slip of 2.2 per cent for 2019
Further, NAB’s latest quarterly property market survey indicates “both sentiment and confidence are running ‘well below average’”.
NAB Residential Property Index
Source: Domain.com.au
In Sydney, house prices are expected to drop 3.7 per cent this year, and unit prices to fall by 1.6 per cent. Melbourne houses are also expected to slip by 2.3 per cent, and units by 1.4 per cent.
However, Hobart houses are expected to “strongly outperform”, with an 8.4 per cent rise in 2018 expected by NAB economists.
NAB research expects houses prices to “flatten in 2020, implying a peak-to-trough fall of 6.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne, respectively”.
NAB hedonic house price forecasts (%)
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
Sydney | 15.5 | 10.7 | 2.1 | -3.7 | -0.7 |
Melbourne | 15.8 | 9.5 | 9.1 | -2.3 | 0.0 |
Brisbane | 6.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Adelaide | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Perth | -4.2 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
Hobart | 7.0 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 1.7 |
Capital City Avg. | 11.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 | -1.8 | -0.1 |
Source: Domain.com.au
NAB hedonic unit price forecasts (%)
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
Sydney | 13.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | -1.6 | -2.4 |
Melbourne | 7.5 | 4.7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
Brisbane | 1.1 | -3.0 | -1.2 | -2.4 | -4.5 |
Adelaide | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
Perth | -2.8 | -6.3 | -0.9 | -5.0 | -0.2 |
Hobart | 1.1 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 |
Capital City Avg. | 8.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | -1.7 | -2.2 |
Source: Domain.com.au
Disclaimer
This article is over two years old, last updated on July 13, 2018. While RateCity makes best efforts to update every important article regularly, the information in this piece may not be as relevant as it once was. Alternatively, please consider checking recent home loans articles.
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